January 2008 No. 3Table of ContentsWhat’s Ahead? |
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Election 2008. Obama and Huckabee won party caucuses in Iowa, and Clinton and McCain won the first state primary in New Hampshire. Who will the political conventions finally select this summer? I’m sure not going to guess, but I don’t think Indiana’s votes will make much difference. There are 8 more primaries before 20 states pick sides on February 5 and another 17 before Hoosiers make their choices on May 6. By then California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, and Pennsylvania will have pretty much decided the delegate counts. And a millionaire mayor may add in an Independent option.
Factoring in “superdelegates” makes the math at the political conventions—Dems, Aug. 25-28 in Denver; Reps, Sept, 1-4 in Minneapolis/St. Paul—almost impossible to predict. Superdelegates are party insiders (members of national committees, Congress, Governors, etc.) who are not bound by primary results in whom they back. See www.cnn.com/POLITICS to track candidates’ likely convention vote totals.
On March 11, Hoosiers in U.S. District 7 vote to fill the remaining 9 months of the 2008 term left vacant by the death of Rep. Julia Carson.
On May 6, Hoosiers pick the 2009 contenders on the November 4 ballot for Governor, U.S. Congress, and Indiana Representatives and Senators—U.S. Senators Lugar and Bayh don’t face re-election.
IN voting ID. The US Supreme Court will rule on whether Indiana law can require a photo ID for voters at the polls. Ours is one of the most stringent in the USA, so the case is being watched closely by other states. Supporters say a government-photo prevents fraud; others say it’s an unfair burden on the poor, elderly, and people with disabilities. A decision may or may not come before May 6.
IN State of the State. Bragging on turnaround in license branch efficiency, Governor Daniels said property tax relief was issue #1 for 2008, worth a special session if need be. He challenged lawmakers to pass reforms by former Governor Bowen’s 90th birthday on Feb. 26. That got a bipartisan ovation.
IN General Assembly. By March 14, lawmakers must agree on acts to send the Governor. The list:
IN state government. Jan. 1 started:
Will IN out-migration continue? United Van Lines said 56.4% of its moves for Hoosiers in 2007 were going out of IN and 43.6% into IN, compared to highs of 61.6% into NC and 67.8% out of MI.
CHIP in IN. President Bush signed a bill continuing the Children’s Health Insurance Program as is thru March 2009. He twice vetoed previous versions that provided funding to cover 4 million more kids over the next five years.
Americans’ concerns. Amid Wall Street jitters over the US economy, HarrisInteractive polled adults in mid-December on what “two or three” issues “are most important to you in deciding which presidential candidate you would vote for?” Here are the rankings with differences expressed by party identification and by political philosophy.
The full results with biases toward candidates are at www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/
printerfriend/index.asp?PID=849.
US on “wrong track.” Not since the UN-authorized Gulf War of 1991—when the sitting president did not get reelected—has such a vast majority of Americans (74%) said that things are not on the right track, according to HarrisInteractive. In December, 30% gave their “spontaneous, unprompted replies” and ranked the current Iraq war as one of the two “most important issues for the government to address” now. But that was followed by healthcare (24%, not Medicare), the economy (20%), and immigration (12%); the list went on with dozens more.
There’s pessimism about our hometowns as well; 47% of Americans think their own community has gotten “pretty seriously off on the wrong track.” They feel their regional economic growth is more important (51%) than protecting the environment (37%), and 73% say “a vision or a long range plan for growth in the region” is “extremely important.”
Philanthropic trends. Nonprofit leaders named the next president as an important factor in fund raising’s future. They also told The Chronicle of Philanthropy that the “turbulent economy, “heightened concerns about charities among government leaders, rapidly evolving technology, and shifting demographics” are realities that nonprofits must address.
It still may be a long time until the leadership of nonprofits reflects the diversity of America, reported The Chronicle of Philanthropy – 82% of charity CEOs and 94% of foundation CEOs are white (compared to 67% of US population). The vast majority of nonprofit board members are white as well (86%). The larger the nonprofit, the less likely it is headed by a woman (50% of those with <$1M budgets and 34% of >$1M budgets).
Nonprofits make up 5% of gross domestic product in 8 major countries, ranging from 7.3% in Canada to 4.2% in France with the USA second with 7.2%. Johns Hopkins Center for Civil Society Studies led the United Nations study – www.jhu.edu/~ccss.
New 990s. Nonprofits will have to file updated federal 990 tax reports in 2009 about their financial, advocacy, and leadership in 2008. The new forms are at www.irs.gov/charities/article/0,,id=176613,00.html.
USA population hit 303.15 million on New Year’s Day. Local growth estimates for 2007 due by June.
Global long view. The Futurist predicts:
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